For decades, much of the logic behind the international furniture trade could be summed up in one question: Where can we produce well and more cheaply?

The question remains valid. But it is no longer enough.

International buyers need to know where the wood comes from, what the risks are of an overly concentrated supply chain, how much a new tariff might affect import costs, what information must accompany the product, and whether the supplier will be prepared to comply with environmental regulations that didn’t even exist when many of today’s global supply chains were established.

The furniture industry has entered a phase in which cost, design, and quality remain fundamental, but they now share the spotlight with geopolitics, supply security, traceability, environmental regulations, technology, and adaptability.

This is not the end of globalization. It is a more complex—and far more strategic—form of globalization.

When Furniture Became a Matter of National Security

Few events illustrate this shift as clearly as what occurred in the United States.

In 2025, the U.S. government invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act—a mechanism related to national security—to impose tariffs on wood products. Among the products affected were certain upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities, which were subject to an additional 25% tariff. The White House

The increase subsequently scheduled for January 2026—30% for certain upholstered furniture and 50% for cabinets—was ultimately postponed for another year while the United States continues negotiations with trading partners. The 25% tariffs, however, remain in place. The White House

This episode represents more than just a tariff change.

When furniture and wood products become part of a formal discussion on national security, it becomes clear that trade is no longer treated exclusively as a matter of economic efficiency.

This transformation extends beyond the furniture sector. The World Trade Report 2026, published by the World Trade Organization (WTO), specifically identifies growing government intervention, geopolitical tensions, digitalization, environmental issues, and the complexity of global value chains as among the forces putting pressure on the multilateral system built over the past decades. World Trade Organization

Interdependence, the WTO notes, has also come to be viewed through the lens of security.

The cheapest supply chain may not be the safest

This shift alters one of the basic equations of the industry.

During the great expansion of global supply chains, companies sought efficiency, specialization, and cost reduction. The concentration of production in certain countries was often a logical consequence of this strategy.

Today, concentration also means risk.

Geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, logistical bottlenecks, trade restrictions, regulatory changes, and excessive dependence on certain suppliers have added new variables to the decision of where to produce and where to source.

The WTO itself points out that concerns related to the concentration of supply chains, technological rivalry, and economic security have been leading governments to seek to reduce certain external dependencies and control the flow of technology and investments. World Trade Organization

This does not mean that global supply chains are disappearing. It means they are being reevaluated.

For the furniture industry—characterized by bulky products, significant logistics costs, and a heavy reliance on natural raw materials—this reassessment may have particularly significant effects.

China remains at the center—but the flows are shifting

China remains indispensable to the global furniture industry. In the European Union, for example, it already accounts for more than half of furniture imports from outside the bloc, according to the European Commission itself. Internal Market and SMEs

The figures help illustrate the scale of this presence. In 2025, the European category encompassing furniture, lighting, bedding, mattresses, and prefabricated structures alone accounted for €21.3 billion in imports from China. European Commission

But the issue is no longer simply about replacing China.

Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, and other industrial hubs have gained prominence in various markets and categories. Companies have begun to combine suppliers, bring part of their production closer to consumer markets, and diversify their sources.

The new model tends to be less of a complete shift from one country to another and more a diversification of risk.

Europe is shifting its gateway

While the United States demonstrates how geopolitics can alter tariffs, Europe offers another example of transformation: market access is increasingly dependent on the information that accompanies the product.

Two acronyms deserve a permanent place in the global furniture industry’s vocabulary: EUDR and ESPR.

And they address different issues.

The first focuses specifically on the origin of certain raw materials. The second is beginning to establish new rules for the product itself.

EUDR: Knowing Where the Wood Came From

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to prevent certain products traded or exported by the European Union from being linked to deforestation or forest degradation.

Timber is among the seven commodities covered by the regulation, as are various derived products—including certain categories of furniture. Operators involved in placing covered products on the European market must demonstrate that they do not come from recently deforested lands or lands associated with forest degradation and that they were produced in accordance with the relevant legislation of the country of origin. Environment

Following delays and adjustments, implementation is scheduled for December 30, 2026, for large and medium-sized operators, and for June 30, 2027, for most micro and small operators. Environment

For the furniture industry, the message is clear: knowing the origin of wood is increasingly moving beyond being merely a good environmental practice and is becoming a concrete requirement for access to certain markets.

ESPR: Now the Product Takes Center Stage

The second regulation may be even less well known to the Brazilian furniture industry.

The Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) establishes a new European framework for sustainability requirements applicable to products.

And furniture is among the priority categories in the European Commission’s first 2025–2030 work plan, alongside products such as steel, aluminum, textiles, tires, and mattresses. Green Forum

The objective is much broader than simply determining whether a product uses a specific material.

The ESPR allows for the establishment of requirements related to aspects such as durability, circularity, reparability, resource efficiency, recycled content, and sustainability information. One of the planned tools is the Digital Product Passport (DPP). Green Forum

For furniture, the Commission is currently working with 2028 as the indicative date for the adoption of the category-specific delegated act. Mattresses are on the schedule for 2029. Internal Market and SMEs

There is an important distinction: this does not mean that all furniture will already be required to have a digital passport by 2028. The Commission itself clarifies that inclusion in the work plan initiates the process of evaluating and drafting the specific rules. The delegated act will determine the final requirements and the effective compliance date. Internal Market and SMEs

It is a technical difference, but a fundamental one.

Furniture is beginning to gain a digital identity

The concept of the DPP helps us understand where European regulation is headed.

The passport will function as a structured set of digital information associated with the product. Depending on the specific rules for each category, it may include information relevant to sustainability, composition, durability, reparability, and traceability throughout the supply chain. Internal Market and SMEs

And this is no longer just a regulatory framework.

In July 2026, the European Commission launched the Digital Product Passport Registry, an infrastructure designed to register the identifiers and metadata of digital passports. Internal Market and SMEs

For furniture manufacturers planning to operate in Europe in the coming years, therefore, information technology is becoming increasingly intertwined with international trade.

The factory will still need to produce a good chair.

But it may also need to produce reliable information about that chair.

From the traceability of the tree to the traceability of the furniture

This is where the EUDR and ESPR—though they are distinct regulations—help reveal a broader shift.

The former reinforces the importance of knowing and verifying the origin of certain raw materials. The latter focuses on characteristics, performance, and information associated with the product itself.

Taken together, they show a clear trend: the physical supply chain and the information chain are converging.

For suppliers and manufacturers, this may mean greater integration between procurement, production, documentation, digital systems, product engineering, and sustainability.

Traceability no longer ends in the forest.

It is beginning to extend to the furniture itself.

Brazil is already feeling the change

For the Brazilian industry, this new landscape is not an abstraction.

In 2025, Brazilian exports of furniture and mattresses reached $769.3 million, a growth of just 0.8%. The United States remained the top destination, but its share fell from 29.6% of exports in 2024 to 23.5% in 2025. Abimóvel

The shift became even more evident in 2026.

In the first half of the year, Brazilian exports of furniture and mattresses fell 6.5% to $349.7 million. Sales to the United States dropped by about 42%, reducing the U.S. share of Brazilian exports in this sector to 17.4%. At the same time, Brazilian imports of furniture and mattresses increased by 41.7%, with a strong presence of Chinese products. Abimóvel

It’s almost a perfect snapshot of the new landscape: tariffs in one market, the redirection of trade flows in another, and competitive pressure also reaching the domestic market.

Where does Brazil fit into this new landscape?

The answer requires some caution.

The new international landscape does not guarantee an advantage for Brazil.

But it does alter the relative value of certain attributes the country possesses.

A broad base of planted forests, domestic panel production, wood availability, established industry, forest certifications, and export experience may gain importance in a market concerned with supplier diversification, material origin, and security of supply.

On the other hand, these assets do not eliminate well-known challenges.

Industrial competitiveness, productivity, logistics costs, delivery times, product development, international commercial presence, and the ability to meet new documentary and digital requirements remain key factors.

The opportunity, therefore, is not simply to fill the gap left by another country.

It lies in becoming a reliable alternative within a global supply chain that seeks to reduce risks without sacrificing competitiveness.

The New Price of Competitiveness

Perhaps this is the greatest transformation currently underway.

Price still matters. Design still matters. Quality still matters.

But international buyers are beginning to ask different questions.

Where does the wood come from? Can the supplier verify its origin? How much risk is involved in that logistics route? Could a tariff make the product unviable? Can the manufacturer comply with the new European regulations? Can their systems generate the required information? Is there scale? Is there consistency? Are there alternatives if any part of the supply chain is disrupted?

The furniture industry has spent decades refining the answer to a fundamental question: how much does it cost to produce?

The new global landscape has added another:

How much does risk cost?

And understanding this difference may be just as important for the industry’s future as manufacturing a good piece of furniture.